National Semiconductor Corp. (NSM)
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- Semiconductor Returns a Function of Financials [view article]
- They All Fall Dow - Fast Money Recap (6/2/08) [view article]
- National Semi: Now Touting Solar Stuff [view article]
- Apple Engineered Huge Margins Into Its iPhone [view article]
- What's Wrong with Today's Value Investing? [view article]
- This Bud's for InBev - Fast Money Recap (6/11/08) [view article]
- Semiconductors: Is the Glass Half-Empty or Half-Full? [view article]
- Chip Stocks Caught in Microchip Backdraft? [view article]
- Biggest Winners and Losers Since the 5/19 Top [view article]
- Fast Money Recap - Oil Spoils Everything (6/6/08) [view article]
- IDCC, National Semiconductor Trending Up [view article]
- Holy Dow - Fast Money Recap (6/5/08) [view article]
loading ...Recent NSM Articles
- Semiconductor Returns a Function of Financials
- National Semi: Now Touting Solar Stuff
- What's Wrong with Today's Value Investing?
- This Bud's for InBev - Fast Money Recap (6/11/08)
- Chip Stocks Caught in Microchip Backdraft?
- Semiconductors: Is the Glass Half-Empty or Half-Full?
- Biggest Winners and Losers Since the 5/19 Top
- Fast Money Recap - Oil Spoils Everything (6/6/08)
- IDCC, National Semiconductor Trending Up
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- Full List of Articles »
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Tiedeman
Semiconductor Returns a Function of Financials [view article]
I fully expect the SOXX to recover over the next 36 months. The opportunity found in SNDK and NVDA are once decade opportunities. The opportunity in AMD if it can make itself right is one in an investors lifetime. ReplyPeter
National Semi: Now Touting Solar Stuff [view article]
I don't think Tiny Tim has ever watched a shadow! It is perfectly clear why shading could affect only some panels. I have arranged for the ones to be installed on my roof to dodge the shadow of the TV antenna, at least in summer, but the optimum panel position on my daughter's house has a small area shaded by a neighbor's tree, which moved during the day. And the last time birds pooped on my car, it was over a small portion of it, not all over. ReplyApple Engineered Huge Margins Into Its iPhone [view article]
Before you dishonor a religion that you apparently know nothing about, you should know what the faith of Jehovah's Witnesses are based on,...Jehovah's Witnesses can provethe basis for their faith, can you?On Jul 04 02:05 PM Sebhelyesfar ku wrote:
> Faithful? Yes it's not the best term. Dumbass Maczealots are like
> Jehovah's Witnesses. Reply
Apple Engineered Huge Margins Into Its iPhone [view article]
Apparently you know nothing about Jehovah's witnesses or you woud not have made such an ignorant comment.....What do you know about the faith of Jehovah's Witnesses...they are the most honorable and trustworthy group out there. ReplyWhat's Wrong with Today's Value Investing? [view article]
When All Stocks Are Value Stocks - Think QDIValue stocks are those that tend to trade at lower prices relative to their fundamental characteristics than their more speculative cousins, the growth stocks; they have higher than usual dividend yields and lower P/E and P/B ratios. So when all stock prices are down significantly, have they all become value stocks? Or, based on the panicky fear that tends to overwhelm media and financial experts alike, haven't they all taken on the speculative characteristics of growth stocks?
Well, to a certain extent they have, because the lower value stock prices go, the more likely it is that they will eventually experience the 15% ROE that typifies the classic growth stock. Interestingly, by definition, growth stocks are expected to be associated with profitable companies, a fact that speculators often lose site of. There are three features that separate value stocks from growth stocks and two that separate Investment Grade Value (IGV) stocks from the average, run-of-the-mill, variety.
Value stocks pay dividends, and have lower ratios than growth stocks. IGV stock companies also have long-term histories of profitability and an S & P rating of B+ or higher. Would you be surprised to learn that neither the DJIA nor the S & P 500 contains particularly high numbers of IGV stocks? Still, since 1982, value stocks have outperformed growth stocks 62% of the time. So when an ugly correction has a makeover, it's likely that all value stocks transform themselves into growth stocks, at least temporarily.
Will Rogers summed up the stock selection quandary nicely with: "Only buy stocks that go up. If they aren't going to go up, don't buy them." Many have misunderstood this tongue-in-cheek observation and joined the buy-anything-high investment club. You need dig no further than the current lists (June '08) of "most advancing issues" to see how investors are buying commodity companies and financial futures at the highest prices in the history of mankind.
This while they are shunning IGVSI (Investment Grade Value Stock Index) companies that have plummeted to their most attractive price levels in three to five years. Many of the very best multinational companies in the world are at historically low prices. Wall Street smiles knowingly (and greedily) as Main Street hucksters tout gold, currencies, and oil futures as retirement plan safety nets. Regulatory agencies look the other way as speculations worm their way into qualified plans of all varieties. Surely those markets will be regulated some day--- after the next Bazooka-pink, gooey mess becomes history.
How much financial bloodshed is necessary before we realize that there is no safe and easy shortcut to investment success? When do we learn that most of our mistakes involve greed, fear, or unrealistic expectations about what we own? Eventually, successful investors begin to allocate assets in a goal directed manner by adopting a more realistic investment strategy--- one with security selection guidelines and realistic performance definitions and expectations.
If you are thinking of trying a strategy for a year to see if it works, you're being too short-term sighted--- the investment markets operate in cycles. If you insist on comparing your performance with indices and averages, you'll rarely be satisfied. A viable investment strategy will be a three-dimensional decision model, and all three decisions are equally important. Few strategies include a targeted profit taking discipline--- dimension two. The first dimension involves the selection of securities. The third?
How should an investor determine what stocks to buy, and when to buy them? We've discussed the features of value and growth stocks and seen how any number of companies can qualify as either dependent upon where we are in terms of the market cycle or where they are in terms of their own industry, sector, or business cycles. Value stocks (and the debt securities of value stock companies) tend to be safer than growth stocks. But IGVSI stocks are super-screened by a unique rating system that is based on company survival statistics--- very important stuff.
In the late 90's, it was rumored that a well-known value fund manager was asked why he wasn't buying dot-coms, IPOs, etc. When he said that they didn't qualify as value stocks, he was told to change his definition--- or else. IGV stocks include a quality element that minimizes the risk of loss and normally smoothes the angles in the market cycle. The market value highs are typically not as high, but the market value lows are most often not as low as they are with either growth or Wall Street definition value stocks. They work best in conjunction with portfolios that have an income allocation of at least 30%--- you need to know why.
How do we create a confidence building IGV stock selection universe without getting bogged down in endless research? Here are five filters you can use to come up with a listing of higher quality companies: (1) An S & P rating of B+ or better. Standard & Poor's combines many fundamental and qualitative factors into a letter ranking that speaks only to the financial viability of the companies. Anything rated lower adds more risk to your portfolio.
(2) A history of profitability. Although it should seem obvious, buying stock in a company that has a history of profitable operations is inherently less risky. Profitable operations adapt more readily to changes in markets, economies, and business growth opportunities. (3) A history of regular, even increasing, dividend payments. Companies will go to great lengths, and endure great hardships, before electing either to cut or to omit a dividend. Dividend changes are important, absolute size is not.
(4) A Reasonable Price Range. Most Investment Grade stocks are priced above $10 per share and only a few trade at levels above $100. An unusually high price may be caused by higher sector or company-specific speculation while an inordinately low price may be a good warning signal. (5) An NYSE listing--- just because it's easier.
Your selection universe will become the backbone of your equity asset allocation, so there is no room for creative adjustments to the rules and guidelines you've established--- no matter how strongly you feel about recent news or rumor. There are approximately 450 IGV stocks to choose from--- and you'll find the name recognition comforting. Additionally, as these companies gyrate above and below your purchase price (as they absolutely will), you can be more confident that it is merely the nature of the stock market and not an imminent financial disaster.
The QDI? Quality, diversification, and income.
Steve Selengut
www.sancoservices.com
www.kiawahgolfinvestme.../
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"
Reply
This Bud's for InBev - Fast Money Recap (6/11/08) [view article]
It's amazing how much patriotism is getting in the way of what is obviously a profitable move for BUD and its shareholders. Investors must have missed this lesson: Don't let your emotions getin the way of your investments.
It places too much sentimental value on the Company.
Instead of holding on to BUD for dear life, check out this article about how to make a profit by using puts and
calls. www.greenfaucet.com/fu...-...
Pretty interesting stuff, and depending on what you think is going to happen, there is a lot of room for profit here.
A lot safer than holding and hoping. Check it out. Reply
sack
What's Wrong with Today's Value Investing? [view article]
GreenAB,Good point about multiple contraction. You may be interested in reading what Vitaliy Katsenelson has written about this phenomena during secular range-bound markets. You can check my site, where I've posted about this, or go directly to his site by googling his name. Reply
What's Wrong with Today's Value Investing? [view article]
i consider myself a value investor too.but i guess we´re in a process of transforming valuations.
models rely on todays prices in relation to lets say the last 10-15 years.
but thats too shortsighted.
the market prices dire profits for the coming years.
that makes stocks less attractive.
so if a model would suggest that a pe of 10 is cheap, there´s no law it has to stay that way. it can fall to 7, 5 or 2 - nobody knows.
it´s called pe-contraction and it happende way in the past.
not an easy time for stockpickers... Reply
National Semi: Now Touting Solar Stuff [view article]
I could see it for panel mismatches, which should be equalized out during the original install, but why don't all the panels get shaded or dirty at the same time?I would think this technology more appropriate to correct mismatches in the individual modules that make up a panel as they age. Reply
sack
What's Wrong with Today's Value Investing? [view article]
Marc,I think the problem with a lot of value investors is that they are so focussed on bottom-up analysis (often based on trailing data) that they ignore the relevant macro trends.
Here's one example: a lot of value investors piggybacked on Warren Buffett's holding USG over the last year or two when they saw it had dropped in price. What they didn't consider was the relevant macro trend: in this case, the real estate and residential construction bust. You don't have to have slogged through Security Analysis to know that a company that manufactures sheet rock is not going to have great earnings during a real estate bust; you just have to pay attention to the relevant macro trends and use some common sense.
This is what has separated Ken Heebner from the pack in recent years. Reply
What's Wrong with Today's Value Investing? [view article]
i agree with nickgogerty. When the 10 year Treasuries is giving you 4% and you are getting an earnings yield of 4% (25 PE), why even bother investing in stocks. Buy Treasuries :).You want the earnings yield from the stock to be atleast 2 X yield from treasuries, to qualify as investment.
Reply
What's Wrong with Today's Value Investing? [view article]
first screen set was <25 PE. Since when is a 4% yield (25 PE) in a 3-4% inflationary environment value investing? The first screen assumes a risk premium that is too low for equities. ReplyNational Semi: Now Touting Solar Stuff [view article]
How it works i simple, really. Just as one weak battery in a pack will draw current from good ones (higher voltage potential pushes juice to lower voltage potential, same for water pressure, air pressure, etc.), a solar panel that is shaded (shadows, dust coatings, etc.) have lower voltage than ones that are not. So some current would tend to flow towards the underperforming panels. Net effect is overall lower effective voltage from the array. That translates into lower current flow from the array to where it is needed.By having circuitry that is equivalent to voltage monitoring, diodes to prevent current flow in "reverse" directions, isolation circuits, etc. the array is "balanced" to maintain overall effective output by preventing these "sapping" effects.
BTW, for accuracy's sake, the PR said as hihg as 44%, not 50% and a lab environment yielded an overall 12% gain.
Certainly a useful result.
The more important effect is that it increases the coverage to installations that may not have previously met minimum qualifications for use of PV arrays. That effect *may* provide enough gain in price points (through higher volumes and more wats per $ at less-optimal sites) to provide a noticable acceleration in PV usage growth. Depends on how widespread the adoption of the device is among installtions. Reply
What's Wrong with Today's Value Investing? [view article]
I have found a nice correlation with consistent sales growth (yoy) and I've found some of the better value stocks when you screen for average sales growth forecasts greater than 5% with Price/Sales ratios of less than 1.5. Through in a dividend Greater than 0 and you might find a good value screen in that. ReplyWhat's Wrong with Today's Value Investing? [view article]
According to one analysis I've read, value stocks outperform growth when credit is easily available== not particularly when markets are down. If that's true, then there's nothing wrong with the value model; it's just the wrong environment. Reply